Wednesday, June 20, 2007

The Morning After

At present, with 96% of the vote counted, it appears that Whitehead will face Broun in a runoff.

The results speak for themselves. A bit of quick addition reveals that the three Democratic candidates in the race accounted for a combined 28.3% of the vote. Contrast that with the 32.6% Terry Holley garnered last November.

As I scan down the results, it appears that Whitehead polled the most votes in 16 counties, finished second in 3 counties, and third in 2 counties (Athens-Clarke, predictably, and Broun’s home county of Oconee).

Broun took the most votes in 4 counties, finishing second in 8 counties, third in 7 counties, and fourth in 2 counties (including Lincoln, from which Marlow hails).

Of course, James Marlow prevailed only in self-consciously “progressive” Athens-Clarke County, finished second in 9 counties, third in 9 counties and fourth in 2 counties (getting outpolled by Paschall in McDuffie and Freeman in Greene).

The striking thing is not that Whitehead did so well, after all he was the establishment choice in a heavily Republican district, but rather that Marlow did so poorly. He, too, was the establishment choice, even if unofficially, and the GOP vote was split six ways. Take Athens-Clarke County out of the figures and Marlow only got 7032 votes spread over 20 counties, significantly fewer than Whitehead received in Columbia County alone.

And why are the guys at Political Insider saying that Marlow is from Athens?

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Jmac said...

I don't know if it's that Marlow did so poorly, but rather that Freeman and Paschall did so well. I mean, Marlow tallied 57 percent in Athens-Clarke County, but he struggled elsewhere.

There could be a variety of reasons for this. I think he put all of his eggs in the ACC basket, thinking that Freeman and Paschall wouldn't be factors, and that he'd get enough of a bump to make the runoff where he could then consolidate Democratic support (though that's just a hypothetical on my part).

That wasn't the case, of course, and Paschall's performance in the Augusta area hurt him.

A couple of other things ...

• GOP turnout was strong in the Augusta area, and they backed Whitehead hard;

• Democrats in those areas didn't gel around Marlow for some reason (his struggles in McDuffie County are interesting, particularly considering that's where Holley has sway) and either backed Paschall or stayed home (I hear Democratic turnout was low down there).

lefty said...

yea, i really thought marlow would make the runoff. and wasn't he like 115 votes from doing so? even if he had, i don't think he had a chance of beating whitehead.